Canada’s Fiscal Outlook: Debt, Hopium, and Deceit.
Canada’s Fiscal Outlook: Debt, Hopium, and Deceit.
Mark Carney’s Liberal government finally released their first budget, projecting a staggering $78.3 billion deficit for the fiscal year. Remember Crystia Freeland was forced out before the fall economic statement in December of last year revealed a whopping $61.9 billion dollar deficit, much higher than $40.1 billion forecast. But that was totally, absolutely not in any way, shape, or form the same government. Le sigh.
The budget projects approximately $450 billion annual spending over the next five years with cumulative deficits of $321.7 billion and cumulative debt servicing of $329.3 billion. $280 billion is being framed as “investments” in infrastructure, AI, housing, and defense to counter US tariffs and spur $1 trillion in private capital. Every Canadian should wholeheartedly wish for this plan to succeed, but have every right to doubt it. If successful, Canada will have a national industrial strategy ready to position us for the AI-driven economy. But if reckless overspending and government bloat continue, our once prosperous nation will continue to evaporate.
Regardless of political stripe, we must demand government end its deceptive reporting practices around its highly touted Debt-to-GDP ratio. Any elected official who presents this ratio as the lowest in the G7 needs to called out immediately and any bureaucrat who repeats it should be fired. It’s simply not true. Canada is the only G7 country to net out its public pension assets in the headline ratio and this practice goes against international standards. When calculated like every other nation, our Debt-to-GDP ratio is 113-117%. Stop the deceit.
Ostrich-Gate: Missed Opportunities and Broken Hearts
In late 2024, 69 ostriches died at Universal Farms in British Columbia—two tested positive for H5N1. Despite no further outbreaks after January 2025, the CFIA ordered the remaining 314 birds destroyed, citing international trade protocols.
Farm owners Katie Pasitney Espersen and Dave Bilinski fought for independent re-testing, arguing their asymptomatic flock could offer valuable research into natural immunity. The CFIA refused—even rejecting US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s May 2025 plea to halt the cull for scientific study, and ignoring recommendations from their own expert, Harvey Sasaki.
On November 6, 2025, the Supreme Court dismissed the farm's final appeal. The cull was carried out within 36 hours.
This represents a profound missed opportunity. Ostriches possess unique antibody production capabilities; genetic sequencing of this H5N1-exposed flock could have yielded significant scientific insights. For a government that preached "Trust the Science," it's difficult to understand why they shot it instead.
CFIA President Paul MacKinnon—previously involved in the $54 million ArriveCan debacle—has proven Thomas Sowell's theory: "For bureaucrats, procedure is everything and outcomes are nothing."
Market Watch: Liquidity Returns, Cycles Lenghten, and a Bold Bet on AI Growth
The US government shut down is finally winding down. This is great news for investors as the Treasury General Account (TGA) has been hoarding liquidity, reaching a balance just shy of $1T last week. The only time it’s been higher was during the Covid pandemic.
TGA draws will begin leading into the end of QT on December 1, followed by more anticipated rate cuts. The Bull Run ends when liquidity dries up; that isn’t now. Macro investor, Raoul Paul, has also highlighted a subtle shift in the business cycle, driven by recent ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data. The weighted average maturity of US government debt has extended from four to five years since 2022, which could stretch the liquidity and business cycles to match – potentially delaying recessions and extending growth phases. As debt rolls over into lower rates, momentum could be sustained for another year or more, giving potential for pro-growth policies to take root. Only time will tell.
Amid the backdrop of increases liquidity, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio sounds a cautionary note of the Federal Reserve’s pivot. He warns they are “stimulating into a bubble” rather than a bust, which could lead into a “melt up” of asset prices before their inevitable pop. He describes current policy as a “bold and dangerous big bet on growth, especially AI”. Right or wrong, there’s opportunity ahead. Proceed with caution.
Closing out this edition of Market Watch, we take note of Elon Musk’s reply to Sen. Roland Gutierrez’s community noted criticism of his Tesla compensation package: “You are a taker, not a maker. All you’ve done your whole life is take from the makers of the world”. https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1986833400171577503?s=20 To that our conservative friends, we say, “Be a Maker”.
📚 Conservative Living: This Week’s Pick
Ethan Vale lifts the curtain on a truth most people quietly sense but never articulate: the real economy isn’t the one you see on paper. It’s the invisible one; the economy of reputation, relevance, credibility, and perceived value. Vale breaks down how opportunities flow in modern society not through résumés or job boards, but through positioning, proximity, and the stories people tell about you when you’re not in the room.
This book is part wake-up call, part strategy manual. It explains why two people with the same skill set can live entirely different financial realities, and why the middle class keeps losing ground despite working harder. If you’ve ever felt like you’re “doing everything right” and still not moving up, you need this book.
✒️ Conservative Living: A Note on Personal Branding
Personal branding has become the buzzword everyone rolls their eyes at… right up until they realize it quietly runs the modern economy. You don’t need a viral video or a glossy photoshoot to build influence. What you need is consistency, clarity, and proof that you take yourself seriously.
Here are a few shifts that make a real difference:
1. Pick your lane and stay in it.
People trust specialists. If you want to be remembered, anchor yourself to one theme — leadership, policy, wellness, finance, whatever — and let everything orbit around it.
2. Stop hiding your wins.
Adults respect results. Share accomplishments the way you’d share news: matter-of-fact, not boastful. People can’t value what they don’t see.
3. Upgrade your digital footprint.
Your LinkedIn, Instagram, even your email signature should all tell the same story. Clean, polished, intentional. If it looks chaotic, people assume you are too.
4. Sound like someone who knows where they’re going.
Your language shapes perception. Speak with direction. Write with conviction. Uncertainty is human, but clarity is magnetic.
5. Show up offline.
The highest-value opportunities still happen in rooms, not merely feeds. Attend events, join circles, build relationships. The “hidden economy” Ethan Vale describes thrives on proximity.
Strong personal branding is choosing to live in a way that’s easy to respect.
PS: A Mastermind event is in the works. More to come soon ;)
